Resumo

Brazil faces a public security crisis with high violent crime rates. From 2000 to 2022, Brazil averaged 52,500 homicides annually, totaling about 1.2 million victims. Despite being only 2.8% of the global population, Brazil accounted for 15.3% of the world's homicides in 2016. The “Sistema Único de Segurança Pública”, initiated in 2018, reduced the homicide rate significantly. Yet, in 2020, Brazil recorded the highest absolute number of homicides globally. Addressing violent crime requires tackling structural socioeconomic, demographic and educational issues.

Brazil's public security crisis, marked by high homicide and violent crime rates, persists despite various measures. This research investigates the socioeconomic, demographic, and educational determinants of homicide rates. It aims to formulate hypothesis about the factors influencing homicide rates in Brazil, assess their statistical significance, and estimate their elasticities. Using panel data from 2000 to 2014, this study evaluates how twelve variables affect homicide rates, providing insights for effective public security policies.

This study integrates Ecological Theory of Crime, Theory of Social Disorganization, and Rational Choice Economic Theory to explore homicide determinants. Ecological Theory suggests that urban growth without adequate policies increases violence. Social Disorganization Theory posits that weakened social institutions lead to crime. Rational Choice Theory argues that crime results from rational cost-benefit analyses. The study tests hypotheses on the effects of urbanization, education, migration, unemployment, income, GDP, public security spending, and other factors on homicide rates in Brazil.

This study uses data from 27 Brazilian states (2000-2014) to analyze the impact of socioeconomic, demographic, and educational factors on homicide rates. The dependent variable is the homicide rate, derived from SIM/DATASUS records. Explanatory variables include young men proportion, urbanization, sanitation, interstate migration, illiteracy, school dropout rates, GDP per capita, inequality, unemployment rate, average household income, and public security spending. Using a random effects panel data model, the analysis controls for unobservable heterogeneity and applies robust standard errors.

The study found that unemployment and average household income per capita are significant determinants of homicide rates in Brazil. Unemployment increases crime due to economic distress, while higher income also raises the homicide rate, likely due to increased profitability of criminal activities. Educational factors, especially dropout rates in elementary school, significantly impact homicide rates. The proportion of interstate migrants also affects homicide rates. Public security policies should address economic, educational, and social integration factors to reduce crime effectively.

The study highlights the importance of comprehensive public security policies to reduce homicide rates in Brazil. Key findings suggest that addressing unemployment and average household income alone is insufficient; policies must also focus on educational improvements, particularly reducing dropout rates in elementary school. Strategies to better integrate interstate migrants are also essential. Effective public security policies should combine economic, social, and educational initiatives, ensuring transparency and efficiency in public spending to address the complex causes of homicides.

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