Anais
Resumo do trabalho
Administração Pública · Qualidade de Gasto e Otimização de Recursos Públicos
Título
Correlating Public Debt and Development in Brazil: A Theoretical-Empirical Analysis for the Public Administration (2003–2023)
Palavras-chave
Public Debt
State-led Development
Fiscal Policy
Agradecimento:
I show my sincere gratitude to the Ministry of Education of China for the scholarship that provided for every need during my master's degree, and that enabled the construction of a high-quality thesis and this present article.
Autores
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João Victor de OliveiraUniversidade de São Paulo
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Eliana Tadeu TerciUNIVERSIDADE DE SÃO PAULO (USP)
Resumo
Introdução
Over the years, the federal public debts of countries worldwide have been questioned. Reflected on public administration, two lines of thought have divided this debate since the 1970s, creating two policy branches and considerations on the public debt, and the role of the State (Schramm et al., 2018). The orthodox economic line claims that public debt harms the State’s development capability, alleging that austerity measures are required, and the heterodox perception claims that the public debt is a legitimate State financing mechanism (Deos & Ultremare, 2022).
Problema de Pesquisa e Objetivo
These economic lines of thought have influenced different policy branches in the Brazilian public administration, sometimes accomplishing inclusive development, and at other times, economic recession, which caused strong social and political turbulence in Brazilian society. Grounded on austerity policies and expansionist policies, the economy in Brazil has experienced improvement and deterioration of several indicators, hence, necessitating a comprehension of which line of thought can assist the country better in reaching its development goals.
Fundamentação Teórica
Keynesianism was a line of thought that contributed to the Welfare State model. Keynes strongly favored the State as an inducer of investment and creator of employment in society (Elias & Bezerra, 2019). It inspired other theories like the MMT, which affirms that a sovereign State that issues its currency, can employ resources to address its needs (Oliveira & Gennari, 2009). External debt was noticed to be harmful to the country’s performance (Pfluck, 2016). The debt composition was also remarkable to the development outcomes in the country (Chernavsky, 2020).
Metodologia
The research is quantitative, with descriptive and inferential methods of analysis. The data consists of seven variables related to Brazilian economic development and spans the period from 2003 to 2023. Data collection was performed from public databases from Brazilian research institutions, and data analysis was executed following descriptive and inferential methods. Inferential analyses were conducted using the statistics software named “R/R Studio”. The tests executed were the Pearson correlation testing (r), Simple Linear Regression, and Multiple Linear Regression (Draper and Smith, 1998).
Análise dos Resultados
The 2003 to 2023 series demonstrated positive associations between Public Debt, GDP, and HDI. Under the heterodox hypothesis that public debt is not a natural limitation to development, the 2003-2014 time series depicted that Public Debt is positively correlated to GDP, Employment, Investment, and HDI. The nature and composition of the debt, and the debt services payment rate were three significant components to illustrate in which configuration public debt may harm the economic performance. The conclusions from the tests reinforce heterodox diagnostics and solutions for economic development.
Conclusão
This article points to two affirmations: public debt is not an automatic threshold to development, as economic development variables have improved despite the indebtedness elevation. And the second is that public debt did influence some variables positively. The conclusions deny austerity and uphold quality expenditure in important axes, such as investment. The results also endorse the affirmation that a contractionist policy is harmful to other development indicators. Results also elucidated that investment and employment are key variables to induce economic development.
Contribuição / Impacto
The research aimed at contributing to the debate regarding public debts worldwide, how to induce development, and which guidelines to avoid. An austere framework is not legitimate, as political choices determine economic outcomes, not debt levels alone. The results challenge the idea of debt as a liability, giving attention to the governance factor as a crucial and determining element for economic development. This article contributes to the policy-making process, recentering the debt debate on governance rather than economics, and assisting public managers in the policy guideline choice.
Referências Bibliográficas
Schramm, A., Paes-Souza, R., Mendes, P. (2018). Políticas de austeridade e seus impactos na saúde [M]. Rio de Janeiro: Centro de Estudos Estratégicos da Fiocruz.
Deos, S., Ultremare, F. (2022). O déficit público é a poupança do setor privado [J]. Sobre a Associação Keynesiana Brasileira-AKB, 20.
Elias, S., Bezerra, C. (2019). A política econômica brasileira pós-crise de 2008 sob a perspectiva das teorias de Keynes e Hayek [J]. Revista de Direito, Economia e Desenvolvimento Sustentável, 5(2), 72-91.
Oliveira, R., Gennari, M. (2009). História do pensamento econômico [M]. Sao Paulo: Saraiva Educa
Deos, S., Ultremare, F. (2022). O déficit público é a poupança do setor privado [J]. Sobre a Associação Keynesiana Brasileira-AKB, 20.
Elias, S., Bezerra, C. (2019). A política econômica brasileira pós-crise de 2008 sob a perspectiva das teorias de Keynes e Hayek [J]. Revista de Direito, Economia e Desenvolvimento Sustentável, 5(2), 72-91.
Oliveira, R., Gennari, M. (2009). História do pensamento econômico [M]. Sao Paulo: Saraiva Educa